Khodrocar - Targeting the production of 1.2 million vehicles during the year of production jumps, while sanctions are still expected to close the hands and feet of the automotive industry and create obstacles in the delivery of parts, and the automotive industry is still suffering from the lack of foreign partners.
On the other hand, these days, due to the outbreak of the corona virus, carmakers' shifts have been seriously implemented and production lines are being produced with minimal forces. In this situation, the question arises as to will be forecasting and targeting this amount of production is reasonable and economical?
This is despite the fact that car industry experts believe that this number is predictable, while given the current prices, the sale of this amount of cars will also be challenged, which will eventually lead to the loss of carmakers again.
"The target of 1.2 million vehicles for this year came at a time when policymakers had to first look at the market for this amount of production.” Farbod Zaveh, expert of auto industry told khodrocar reporter.
"In the situation where the cheapest car is about 70 million Tomans and with the elimination of two cheap high-volume cars, the cheapest car reaches 100 million Tomans, in this situation, it seems unlikely that one million and 200 thousand people will be able to buy this volume of car.” He said.
"Last year's production and targeting case ended with a 50 percent deviation, and while the target was 1,200,000 units last year, only 800,000 units were produced last year, most of which were deferred last year. And the sale of cars was done at a lower price in the previous year, and now the production of one million and 200 thousand cars is predicted.” He told.
"If carmakers are to sell cars again at a lower price than the real price, they will lose money again and the brokerage process will be maintained again. It is unlikely that more than 500,000 people will be able to buy a car, in which case the market will enter a severe recession.” He said.
"If the selling price issue is not resolved, carmakers will face the challenge of lack of liquidity, although it is not a problem to achieve the production of 1.2 million units in terms of infrastructure, because the experience of producing 1.6 million vehicles has already existed, so capacity Production lines are responding, and assuming a three- to four-month delay in production due to the Corona, there will be a production capacity of 800,000 to 1 million units in the second half of the year, so there's no need to worry about car and parts production capacity.” He mentioned.
"However, its sales and lack of liquidity are discussed with this amount of production, and if liquidity compensation is to be created by creating it in the banks, it will lead to inflation. It becomes a carmaker that shows that the policymaker has not set goals with the existing realities.” He said.
It seems that the policies envisaged by the Ministry of Silence are based solely on the jump in production and are based on the existing capacity of automakers, regardless of current specific conditions, while automakers are currently in the third shift. It is still active and sanctions are still in place.